SURFACE TRANSPORTATION BOARD DECISION DOCUMENT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Decision Information | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Docket Number: | EP_558_17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Case Title: | RAILROAD COST OF CAPITAL—2013 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Decision Type: | Decision | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Deciding Body: | Entire Board | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Decision Summary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

Decision Notes: | DECISION FOUND THAT FOR 2013, THE COST OF RAILROAD LONG-TERM DEBT WAS 3.68%; THE COST OF COMMON EQUITY WAS 12.96%; THE COST OF PREFERRED EQUITY WAS 3.87%; THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE MIX OF RAILROADS WAS 17.69% LONG-TERM DEBT, 82.31% COMMON EQUITY, AND 0.004% PREFERRED EQUITY; AND THE COMPOSITE RAILROAD INDUSTRY COST OF CAPITAL WAS 11.32%. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

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Full Text of Decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

43880 SERVICE DATE – JULY 31, 2014 EB SURFACE TRANSPORTATION BOARD DECISION Docket No. EP 558 (Sub-No. 17) RAILROAD COST OF CAPITAL—2013
Decided: July 30, 2014 One of the Board’s regulatory
responsibilities is to determine annually the railroad industry’s cost of capital.[2] This determination is one component used in
evaluating the adequacy of a railroad’s revenue each year pursuant to
49 U.S.C. § 10704(a)(2) and (3).
This proceeding was instituted in We
have received comments from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) that provide
the information that is used in making the annual cost-of-capital determination,
as established in Specifically, WCTL argues
that the determination of the railroad cost of capital for 2013 should be
deferred or conditioned upon the outcome of EP 664 (Sub-No. 2), given that WCTL
has raised questions regarding the methodology behind the cost-of-capital determination
in that rulemaking proceeding.[3] WCTL argues that the Board previously deferred
its annual determination while considering WCTL’s concerns about the
single-stage discounted cash flow methodology in On rebuttal, AAR notes
the importance of the annual cost-of-capital determination in that it is used in
many Board proceedings, including the determination of railroad revenue
adequacy.[5] AAR also notes that, subsequent to the
experience cited by WCTL where the agency moved away from the single-stage
methodology, the Board elected not to defer the establishment of a cost-of-capital
determination while it considered using a Multi-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (MSDCF)
model in calculating the cost of equity in The Board will not defer
the 2013 cost-of-capital determination or condition it on the outcome of EP 664
(Sub-No. 2). Although it is true, as
WCTL argues, that the Board deferred its annual cost-of-capital determination
for 2006 while considering WCTL’s concerns about the single-stage discounted
cash flow methodology ( WCTL also expresses concerns about the inclusion of KCS in the composite sample for the 2013 cost-of-capital determination.[8] While WCTL acknowledges that KCS meets the criteria for 2013, it notes that KCS has not met the criteria in past years.[9] WCTL notes that the Board’s MSDCF and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) methodologies both utilize data from previous years (2009-2012), and WCTL questions whether it is appropriate to include data from KCS for years when KCS did not meet the criteria.[10] WCTL further questions precisely how KCS would be included in the composite sample, especially in the second stage of the MSDCF model, which utilizes an unweighted average of the carriers.[11] On rebuttal, AAR states that it included KCS in the composite because KCS meets the stated criteria, and notes that WCTL does not contend otherwise.[12] AAR contends that WCTL’s arguments represent a challenge to the Board’s established cost-of-capital methodology, and as such are beyond the scope of this proceeding.[13] The
Board will accept AAR’s inclusion of KCS in the composite sample because, as WCTL
concedes, KCS meets the criteria for 2013.
Consistent
with previous cost-of-capital proceedings, AAR calculated the cost of capital
for a “composite railroad” based on criteria developed in As discussed below, we have examined the procedures used by AAR to calculate the following components for the railroad industry’s 2013 cost of capital: (1) cost-of-debt capital, (2) cost of common equity capital, (3) cost of preferred equity capital, (4) capital structure, and (5) composite after-tax cost of capital. We estimate that the 2013 railroad cost of capital was 11.32%.
AAR
developed its 2013 current cost of debt using bond price data from Bloomberg
Professional (Bloomberg), a subscription service used in
AAR used
data from Bloomberg for the current cost of bonds, based on monthly prices and
yields during 2013, for all issues (a total of 76) that were publicly traded
during the year.[16] To develop the current (in 2013) market value
of bonds, AAR used these traded bonds and additional bonds that were outstanding
but not publicly traded during 2013.
Continuing the procedure in effect since 1988, AAR based the market
value on monthly prices for all traded bonds and the face or par value ($1,000)
for all bonds not traded during the year.
AAR computed the total market value of all outstanding bonds to be $26.8
billion ($25.4 billion traded, and $1.4 billion non-traded).[17] Based on the yields for the traded bonds, AAR
calculated the weighted average 2013 yield for all bonds to be 3.620%.[18] We have examined AAR’s bond price and yield
data and have determined that AAR’s computations are correct. Our calculations and data for all bonds are
shown in
ETCs are not actively traded on
secondary markets. Therefore, their
costs must be estimated by comparing them to the yields of other debt
securities that are actively traded.
Following the practice in previous cost-of-capital proceedings, AAR used
government securities with maturities similar to these ETCs as surrogates for
developing yields. After calculating the
2013 yields for these government securities, AAR added basis points There were no new ETCs issued during 2013. However, there were four ETCs outstanding
during the year.[20] AAR calculated that the yield spread for ETCs
was 80 basis points higher than the yield for government bonds.[21] Using the yield spreads, AAR calculated the
weighted average cost of ETCs to be 2.782% We have examined and will accept the cost and market
value of the ETCs using AAR’s data.
CSAs represent a small fraction (less than 1%) of total railroad debt. For 2013, no CSAs were modeled.[24]
As in previous cost-of-capital
determinations, AAR excluded the cost of capitalized leases and miscellaneous
debt in its computation of the overall current cost of debt because these costs
are not directly observable in the open market.
Also, in keeping with past practice, AAR included the book value of
leases and commercial paper in the overall market value of debt, which is used
to determine the railroads’ capital structure mix. AAR calculated that the market value for the
capitalized leases and miscellaneous debt was $1.459 billion for 2013.
AAR calculated that the total market value for all debt
during 2013 was $28.384 billion.[27] We have examined AAR’s data and have
determined that AAR’s calculation is correct.
AAR calculated flotation
costs for bonds, notes, and debentures by calculating a yield based on the
price to investors and a yield that also included flotation costs. The difference between the two yields is the
flotation costs expressed in percentage points.
For 2013, six new issues were reported in five filings.[28] A simple average of the six flotation cost figures
is 0.066%.[29] AAR calculated the 2013 flotation costs for
bonds using publicly available data from electronic filings with the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
For the calculation of ETC flotation costs, AAR used a historical SEC
study composed of railroad ETC data for the years 1951, 1952, and 1955. SEC,
To compute the overall effect of the flotation cost on debt, the market value weight of the outstanding debt is multiplied by the respective flotation cost. The weight for each type of debt is based on market values for debt, excluding all other debt.[30] All other debt is excluded from the weight calculation because a current cost of debt for other debt has not been determined.[31] AAR calculated that flotation costs for debt equal 0.066%.[32] We have reviewed AAR’s calculations concerning flotation
costs and note that AAR applied an incorrect underwriting fee of 0.65% for one
of NS’s Senior notes. The correct
underwriting fee is 0.875%. This change
increases the total flotation cost to 0.068%. We will apply this change to the current cost
of debt. We find that the cost factors
developed for the various components of debt other than the correction stated
above are reasonable.
AAR concluded that the railroads’ cost of debt for 2013
was 3.68%.
Under CAPM, the cost of equity is equal to RF + β×RP, where RF is the risk-free rate, RP is the market-risk premium, and β (or beta) is the measure of systematic, non-diversifiable risk. In order to calculate RF, we asked the railroads to provide the average yield to maturity in 2013 for a 20-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Similarly, the railroads were asked to provide an estimate for RP based on returns experienced by the S&P 500 since 1926. Finally, we instructed the railroads to calculate beta using a portfolio of weekly, merger-adjusted railroad stock returns for the prior five years in the following equation: R – SRRF = α + β(RM – SRRF) + ε, where α = constant term; R =
merger-adjusted stock returns for
the portfolio of railroads that meet the screening criteria set forth in SRRF = the short-run risk-free rate, which we will proxy using the 3-month U.S. Treasury bond rate; RM = return on the S&P 500; and ε = random error term.
To establish the risk-free rate, AAR relies on the Federal
Reserve website to retrieve the average yield to maturity for a 20-year U.S.
Treasury Bond. Using the average yield
to maturity in 2013 for a 20-year U.S. Treasury Bond, consistent with
Using the approach settled upon in
Using the modified approach for assigning
the new shares outstanding, we calculate the cost of equity as RF + β ×
RP, or 3.12% + (1.3499 × 6.96%), which equals 12.52%. To calculate the 2013 market value of common equity for each railroad, AAR calculated each railroad’s weekly market value using data on shares outstanding from railroad 10-Q and 10-K reports, multiplied by stock prices at the close of each week in 2013. AAR calculated the combined 53-week average market value of the railroads as $132.06 billion.[40]
The
cost of equity in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the discount rate that
equates a firm’s market value to the present value of the stream of cash flows
that could affect investors. These cash
flows are not presumed to be paid out to investors; instead, it is assumed that
investors will ultimately benefit from these cash flows through higher regular
dividends, special dividends, stock buybacks, or stock price appreciation. Incorporation of these cash flows and the
expected growth of earnings are the essential elements of the
Morningstar/Ibbotson MSDCF model.
The
Morningstar/Ibbotson MSDCF model defines cash flows (CF), for the first two
stages, as income before extraordinary items (IBEI), minus capital expenditures
(CAPEX), plus depreciation (DEP) and deferred taxes (DT), or CF = IBEI – CAPEX + DEP + DT. The third-stage cash
flow is based on two assumptions:
depreciation equals capital expenditures, and deferred taxes are
zero. That is, cash flow in the third
stage of the model is based only on IBEI. To obtain an average cash-flow-to-sales ratio, AAR divided
the total cash flow in the 2009-2013 periods by the total sales over the same
period. To obtain the 2013 average cash
flow, the cash-flow-to-sales ratio is multiplied by the sales revenue from 2013.
The 2013 average cash flow figure is
then used as the starting point of the Morningstar/Ibbotson MSDCF model. The initial value of IBEI is determined
through the same averaging process for the cash flows in stages one and two. According to AAR, the data inputs in the cash
flow formula were retrieved from the railroads’ 2009-2013 10-K filings with the
SEC.
Growth of earnings is also calculated in three stages. These three growth-rate stages are what make the Morningstar/Ibbotson model a “multi-stage” model. In the first stage (years one through five), the firm’s annual earnings growth rate is assumed to be the median value of the qualifying railroad’s three- to five-year growth estimates, as determined by railroad industry analysts and published by Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S). In the second stage (years six through 10), the growth rate is the average of all growth rates in stage one. In the third stage (years 11 and onwards), the growth rate is the long-run nominal growth rate of the U.S. economy. This long-run nominal growth rate is estimated by using the historical growth in real GDP and the long-run expected inflation rate. AAR calculated the first- and second-stage growth rates according to the I/B/E/S data, which was retrieved from Thomson One Investment Management. The third-stage growth rate of 5.58% was calculated by using the sum of the figures for long-run expected growth in real output (3.27%) and long-run expected inflation (2.31%).[41] After reviewing the evidence provided by AAR, we find that the growth rates are correct and consistent with the Board’s approved methodology, and we will employ them in the determination of the cost of equity for 2013.
AAR estimates a MSDCF cost of equity
of 13.40%.[42] Accordingly, we calculate the MSDCF as 13.40%,
and we will average this estimate with the cost of equity derived from the CAPM
approach. ## Cost of Common Equity Based on the evidence provided, we
conclude that the railroad cost of equity in 2013 was 12.96%.[43] This figure is based on an estimate of the
cost of equity using CAPM of 12.52% and a MSDCF estimate of 13.40%.
Preferred equity has some of the characteristics of both debt and equity. Essentially, preferred stock issues are like common stocks in that they have no maturity dates and represent ownership in the company (usually with no voting rights attached). They are similar to debt in that they usually have fixed dividend payments (akin to interest payments). To determine the cost of
preferred equity here, AAR examined the preferred stock issues of KCS, using
the dividend yield method (dividends divided by market price). AAR computed the market value of the preferred
stock by multiplying the average quarterly price for each issue by the number
of shares outstanding. This is the same
procedure used in previous cost-of-capital determinations. We have determined that the
AAR’s computations are correct.
The Board will apply the same inputs used in the market value for the CAPM model to the capital structure. We have determined that the average market values of debt, common
equity, and preferred equity are $28.384 billion, $132.062 billion, and $6.3
million respectively. The percentage
share of debt decreased, from 22.56% in 2012 to 17.69% in 2013. The percentage share of common equity increased,
from 77.44% in 2012 to 82.31% in 2013. The
percentage of preferred equity for 2013 was 0.004%.
Based
on the evidence furnished in the record, we conclude that the 2013 composite
after-tax cost of capital for the railroad industry, as set forth in
1. The cost of railroad long-term debt was 3.68%. 2. The cost of common equity was 12.96%. 3. The cost of preferred equity was 3.87%. 4. The capital structure mix of the railroads was 17.69% long-term debt, 82.31% common equity, and 0.004% preferred equity. 5. The composite railroad industry cost of capital was 11.32%.
We conclude that this action will not significantly affect either the quality of the human environment or the conservation of energy resources.
1. This decision is effective on August 30, 2014. 2. This proceeding is discontinued. By the Board, Chairman Elliott, Vice Chairman Miller, and Commissioner Begeman.
[1] The digest constitutes no part of the decision of the Board
but has been prepared for the convenience of the reader. It may not be cited to or relied upon as
precedent. [2] The railroad
cost of capital determined here is an aggregate measure. It is not intended to measure the
desirability of any individual capital investment project. [3] WCTL Reply 1-3. [4] WCTL Reply 3. [5] AAR Rebuttal
3. [6] AAR Rebuttal
4. [7] AAR Rebuttal 4-5. [8] WCTL Reply 3. [9] WCTL Reply 4. [10] WCTL Reply 4. [11] WCTL Reply
4-5. [12] AAR Rebuttal
5. [13] AAR Rebuttal
5-6. [14] WCTL Reply 5. [15] The composite
railroad includes those Class I carriers that (1) are listed on either the
New York or American Stock Exchange, (2) paid dividends throughout the
year, (3) had rail assets greater than 50% of their total assets, and
(4) had a debt rating of at least BBB (Standard & Poor’s) and BAA
(Moody’s). [16] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 9. [17] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 10. [18] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 10.
[20] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 16. [21] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 14. This is the same spread
used in 2012.
[23] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 16. AAR approximated the
market values of ETCs using the same procedures used in previous
cost-of-capital determinations. [24] AAR Opening, V.S. Gray 17. Modeled CSAs are CSAs that can be used in AAR’s model to determine market value. According to AAR, non-modeled CSAs are included in the miscellaneous debt category.
[26] We note that in
its workpapers AAR appears to have excluded $32,000 in premiums/debt discounts
in the CSX miscellaneous debt category.
Although this $32,000 was excluded, due to rounding there was no impact
on the total other debt calculation. [27] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 19. [28] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 22. [29] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 24. [30] All other debt
represents capitalized leases, miscellaneous debt, non-modeled ETCs, and
non-modeled CSAs. There were no
non-modeled ETCs in 2013. There was one
non-modeled CSA that was not included because it matures in 2014. AAR Opening, V.S. Gray 18. [31] Current costs can be determined for three of the four debt categories—bonds, ETCs, and CSAs. Usually, the weighted average cost of debt is based upon these three (of the four) debt categories, but in this instance only bonds and ETCs are present. AAR Opening, V.S. Gray 20. [32] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 24.
[35] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 30. [36] The Ibbotson
SBBI Valuation Yearbook published by Morningstar, which was previously used as
the source of the market risk premium, has been discontinued. AAR has replaced the old source with the
Ibbotson SBBI 2014 Classic Yearbook, which provides the same data reflecting
the market-risk premium. AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 31. [37] For the
purposes of determining the number of shares outstanding, new shares
outstanding are assigned to the first Friday on, or after, the effective date. [38] AAR Opening, V.S. Gray 35. AAR uses the SAS General Linear Model
procedure to compute regression data.
The Board uses a standard Excel regression method. [39] [40] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 25-26. [41] In all of the
prior cost-of-capital determinations that relied upon the MSDCF, the long-run
growth rate used was that provided by Morningstar/Ibbotson in its Ibbotson SBBI
Valuation Yearbook. According to AAR,
this publication has been discontinued.
However, the Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook was expanded to contain many
of the statistics found in the Valuation Yearbook. Using data from the Classic Yearbook, the
Federal Reserve, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, AAR has replicated the
Ibbotson calculations for real growth rates and long term inflation. AAR Opening, V.S. Gray 43. [42] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 45. [43] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 46. [44] AAR Opening,
V.S. Gray 50. |