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Studies from Christensen Associates, Inc.


The Board commissioned Christensen Associates to produce, “A Study of Competition in the U.S. Freight Railroad Industry and Analysis of Proposals that Might Enhance Competition,” November 2008. As the Board reported recently, it was discovered that some of the revenue data for the years 2001-2006 provided to Christensen was inaccurate. As a result, the Board retained Christensen Associates to revise the original report with the corrected revenue information. The revision is posted below. This revision does not contain an update of the study with previously unavailable data for calendar years 2007 and 2008.

The revision shows similar findings of revenue per ton-mile to cost-related shipment characteristics and market structure factors as the originally published study, and the study’s recommendations remain unchanged. Since unmasked revenues are lower overall than masked revenues, distributions of the revenue-to-variable cost ratio (“R/VC”) for shipment tonnage in chapter 11 shifted downward. The use of unmasked revenues did not produce a significant change in the price indices reported in chapter 8. The study’s finding in chapter 10 remains unchanged that the recent increase in revenue per ton-mile appears to be the result of cost increases, and not due to the increased exercise of market power.

Chapters 8 and 10-15 were revised. In Chapter 8, revisions were made to Figures 8.5 and 8.6 and Tables 8.3 and 8.4, but the revisions do not meaningfully change the discussion and conclusions from the original figures and tables. In Chapter 10, Figures 10-1 through 10-5 and Table 1 were revised, resulting in market power calculations that are now greater than previously reported for 1987-1999 and less than previously reported for 2001-2006.

In Chapters 11-15, the pricing models and other calculations based on the Carload Waybill Sample were re-estimated using the unmasked data. Since unmasked revenue is lower on average than masked revenue, revisions appear in Chapter 11, Table 11-8, showing the distribution of tons and ton-miles by RVC categories, and the graphs in Chapters 12-15, showing trends in revenue and revenue per ton-mile. Additionally, coefficient estimates and resulting calculations reported in Chapters 11-15 changed, generally by small amounts. Discussions of markup indexes shown in Tables 11-6 and 11-7, and of estimated cost and market structure effects reported in Chapters 12-15, were revised as necessary.

As announced on July 30, 2009, the Board expects a supplement to the study from Christensen Associates with 2007-2008 data this winter. The supplement will update chapters 8-15.

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